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In My Room » Blog Archive » Why polls don’t matter in this election.

Why polls don’t matter in this election.

Friday, September 17th, 2004 @ 11:41 pm | Current Events

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For those of us hoping for a Kerry victory in November, the latest polls aren’t so encouraging. Ever since the Republican convention, most polls have shown Bush ahead of Kerry; that is, when they’re not in a statistical dead heat.

Then again, you might feel better once you realize that the polls are bullshit, especially in this election. First of all, the different pollsters can’t even agree on who’s in the lead. Considering how close the election is, this wouldn’t be a problem if not for the fact that each poll declares a different winner, sometimes by a significant margin.

Secondly, their methodology is flawed. Significant portions of the population, namely young people and other first-time voters, are not being accounted for. This is very significant, especially in an election with many first-time voters and people who haven’t voted in years. The people who are most likely to vote for Kerry, namely first-time voters, young people, and long-inactive voters who are voting to put Bush out of office, are not being counted in the polls.

So, in other words, disregard the pollster behind the curtain. We won’t know who wins until the votes are counted on Nov. 4.

3 Responses to “Why polls don’t matter in this election.”

  1. Luke Says:

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    For a more in depth look at how the election is shaping up, I like electoral-vote.com , which takes a state-by-state approach and measures the only thing that really matters, electoral distrobution.

    Nice blog by the way

    Luke

  2. pat Says:

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    Just a reminder: Your vote for Kerry only negates a vote for Bush; please do whatever you can to get a second Kerry voter to the polls to make both votes more effective!

  3. Bill Butler Says:

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    I found an interesting site that attempts to break down who the ‘newly registered voters’ are likely to vote for. It’s a long read but very informative.

    http://appserv.pace.edu/emplibrary/pace_poll_072604.pdf